Heat = no water?
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Category: General
Forum Name: Whitewater Forum
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URL: http://www.professorpaddle.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=13086
Printed Date: 26 Sep 2025 at 1:59am
Topic: Heat = no water?
Posted By: Travisimo
Subject: Heat = no water?
Date Posted: 02 May 2013 at 4:01pm
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I'm confused (not new)... Do people think we're set for high levels by Saturday? All trusty forecasts have been terribly wrong. No raise at all yet on Ohane, Robe, Sky etc?
Trying to plan where to be, but I don't get the lack of melt. ------------- H2O please |
Replies:
Posted By: jP
Date Posted: 02 May 2013 at 4:48pm
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It'll be creeping up by sunday at the latest, I'm sure. Here's my first hand knowledge (woefully limited though it may be):
Surprisingly warm this morning in Leavenworth, after being quite cool in the mornings all week. Yesterday on Icicle it was moderately warm in the afternoon. I was driving over the pass early this morning and it was cold in the upper Sky drainage, accounting for the continued drop in flows. Until we get a streak of 70's I wouldn't expect much. The last heat wave in early April seems to have taken all of our mid-elevation snow, so unless the high country heats up, the snow up there shouldn't melt. Its just not hot yet. The three forecast graphs I go off of are all predicted to go nuclear sunday/monday-ish. Wenatchee, Sky, and S.frk Stilly are all I watch anymore. Not only is that my zone, but I find those three to be fine indicators for the rest of the state. The water is coming, I just hope we don't lose it all at once. No mid elevation snow leads me to think we got a light year coming, but we at least are far better off than the rest of the country. Even on drought years we are pretty blessed. Monday through the week should be great. I know that's small consolation for a weekend Ohane Junkie, though. Take care, Travis! ------------- 🐋🐋🐋🐋🐋🐋🐋🐋🐋🐋🐋 |
Posted By: Ellingferd
Date Posted: 02 May 2013 at 5:07pm
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JP,
I have been looking at the snow data compared with last year and it isn't that much different. Probably 15% less, and last year was huge. Wenatchee at 12K in July is awesome. From my experience, you need 80 degrees for at least three days or more for things to get cranking, and the lows have to be above normal as well. This is going to be a great season, and hopefully it stays cool the next month, giving a longer icicle season and longer playboating season on the wenatchee since 8000 cfs is the new 12000cfs for the best play, with the exception of a full on rodeo hole. |
Posted By: portagebro
Date Posted: 03 May 2013 at 8:12pm
| It's all about the low temps at night. The snowpack melts from the top down and as long as the meltwater re-freezes at night within the snowpack, runoff is slow. When we have enough warm nights that the meltwater does not re-freeze, the entire snowpack is "ripe" and will come off fast. |
Posted By: Travisimo
Date Posted: 04 May 2013 at 12:00am
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Looks like you're right, thanks!
The Ohane finally started to go off. I bet it's real high by the end of the day tomorrow? Did anybody get out there? Anybody going, let me know if so, not sure I'll commit but I'd love to see vids of it at 3K. ------------- H2O please |
Posted By: Blair
Date Posted: 06 May 2013 at 11:54am
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Posted By: jP
Date Posted: 07 May 2013 at 6:43am
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Ellingferd, thanks for the feedback. I hope you are right, but I ain't taking any chances.
Portagebro- drop some science on us all more often. You are full of much insight. Like I said, I can't take any chances, and must assume the worst just in case. Thats why Im going boating again TODAY!!! ------------- 🐋🐋🐋🐋🐋🐋🐋🐋🐋🐋🐋 |